In light of the alarming trend of historically high temperatures that European Union
scientists confirmed last month, UK researchers released a study on February 8 that
warned of the catastrophic and rapid ice loss in Antarctica that could result from fossil
fuel-driven global warming, a phenomenon not seen in thousands of years.
The study, which was published in Nature Geoscience by scientists from the University
of Cambridge and the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), is based on an ice core that is more
than 2,100 feet long from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Professor Eric Wolff of Cambridge Earth Sciences, the senior author, stated in a statement,
"We now have direct evidence that this ice sheet suffered rapid ice loss in the past." "If
portions of this ice sheet become unstable, this scenario could occur again and is not
limited to the predictions of our model."
"We wanted to know what happened to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet at the end of the Last
Ice Age, when temperatures on Earth were rising, albeit at a slower rate than current
anthropogenic warming," said study co-author and BAS researcher Isobel Rowell.
She went on, "We can go back to that time and estimate the thickness and extent of the ice
sheet using ice cores." After measuring air bubble pressure in the core and stable water
isotopes, the scientists concluded that the ice sheet "shrank suddenly and dramatically"
approximately 8,000 years ago.
Rowell said, citing estimates of 5,000–12,000 years ago, "We already knew from models
that the ice thinned around this time, but the date of this was uncertain." "Now that we have an extremely accurate date for that retreat, we can incorporate it into better models."
Additionally, earlier models did not show the speed at which the retreat occurred. But
according to the team's findings, "the ice shrank really fast once it thinned," according to
Wolff.
He continued, "This was a tipping point—a runaway process." "It's now imperative to
ascertain whether additional warmth could cause the ice to become unstable and begin
retreating once more."
The study's key finding, according to Ted Scambos, a glaciologist at the University of
Colorado Boulder, is that "the amount of ice stored in Antarctica can change very
quickly— at a pace that would be hard to deal with for many coastal cities." He called the
research "an excellent piece of detective work" and told CNN as much.
According to CNN, the report supports experts' growing concerns about the situation in
Antarctica:
For instance, the West Antarctica glacier Thwaites Glacier is melting quickly. According
to a 2022 study, as the earth heats, the Thwaites glacier—dubbed the Doomsday Glacier
because of the disastrous effect its disintegration would have on sea level rise—is hanging
on "by its fingernails."
These worries are raised by the latest study, according to Scambos. "[It] demonstrates that the exact processes that we are witnessing right now, in regions like Thwaites Glacier, have occurred in comparable regions of Antarctica in the past, and in fact, the rate of ice loss matched our most severe concerns regarding a runaway ice loss."
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet risks "unavoidable" increases in melting for the remainder of
this century, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change, as Common
Dreams reported in October. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet holds enough ice to raise the
global mean sea level by over 17 feet.
Lead author and BAS researcher Kaitlin Naughten stated at the time that "we must not
stop working to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels" and added, "If we wanted to
preserve it in its historical state, we would have needed action on climate change decades
ago."
The analysis was released before the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference,
which took place in Dubai. Scientists dubbed COP28 a "tragedy for the planet" after it
concluded in December with a final agreement that did not specifically support a global
phaseout of fossil fuels.
Although the CEO of a fossil fuel company led the most recent conference in the United
Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, which is hosting COP29, intends to have an oil executive lead
the next one, which is set for November. Over the next ten years, Azerbaijan also intends
to increase its gas production by a third.
The host of COP29 is not by herself. According to information released by Global
Witness last month, the oil and gas companies that committed to decarbonizing at the
conference last year intend to use up roughly 62 percent of the global carbon budget by
2050. This revelation prompted new calls for governments to stop giving in to polluters
and enact more aggressive climate policies.
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