The Antarctic Tipping Point "Could Happen Again" after occurring 8,000 years ago

 


In light of the alarming trend of historically high temperatures that European Union

scientists confirmed last month, UK researchers released a study on February 8 that

warned of the catastrophic and rapid ice loss in Antarctica that could result from fossil

fuel-driven global warming, a phenomenon not seen in thousands of years.


The study, which was published in Nature Geoscience by scientists from the University

of Cambridge and the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), is based on an ice core that is more

than 2,100 feet long from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.


Professor Eric Wolff of Cambridge Earth Sciences, the senior author, stated in a statement,

"We now have direct evidence that this ice sheet suffered rapid ice loss in the past." "If

portions of this ice sheet become unstable, this scenario could occur again and is not

limited to the predictions of our model."




"We wanted to know what happened to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet at the end of the Last

Ice Age, when temperatures on Earth were rising, albeit at a slower rate than current

anthropogenic warming," said study co-author and BAS researcher Isobel Rowell.


She went on, "We can go back to that time and estimate the thickness and extent of the ice

sheet using ice cores." After measuring air bubble pressure in the core and stable water

isotopes, the scientists concluded that the ice sheet "shrank suddenly and dramatically"

approximately 8,000 years ago.


Rowell said, citing estimates of 5,000–12,000 years ago, "We already knew from models

that the ice thinned around this time, but the date of this was uncertain." "Now that we have an extremely accurate date for that retreat, we can incorporate it into better models."




Additionally, earlier models did not show the speed at which the retreat occurred. But

according to the team's findings, "the ice shrank really fast once it thinned," according to

Wolff.


He continued, "This was a tipping point—a runaway process." "It's now imperative to

ascertain whether additional warmth could cause the ice to become unstable and begin

retreating once more."


The study's key finding, according to Ted Scambos, a glaciologist at the University of

Colorado Boulder, is that "the amount of ice stored in Antarctica can change very

quickly— at a pace that would be hard to deal with for many coastal cities." He called the

research "an excellent piece of detective work" and told CNN as much.


According to CNN, the report supports experts' growing concerns about the situation in

Antarctica:


For instance, the West Antarctica glacier Thwaites Glacier is melting quickly. According

to a 2022 study, as the earth heats, the Thwaites glacier—dubbed the Doomsday Glacier

because of the disastrous effect its disintegration would have on sea level rise—is hanging

on "by its fingernails."



These worries are raised by the latest study, according to Scambos. "[It] demonstrates that the exact processes that we are witnessing right now, in regions like Thwaites Glacier, have occurred in comparable regions of Antarctica in the past, and in fact, the rate of ice loss matched our most severe concerns regarding a runaway ice loss."




The West Antarctic Ice Sheet risks "unavoidable" increases in melting for the remainder of

this century, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change, as Common

Dreams reported in October. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet holds enough ice to raise the

global mean sea level by over 17 feet.


Lead author and BAS researcher Kaitlin Naughten stated at the time that "we must not

stop working to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels" and added, "If we wanted to

preserve it in its historical state, we would have needed action on climate change decades

ago."



The analysis was released before the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference,

which took place in Dubai. Scientists dubbed COP28 a "tragedy for the planet" after it

concluded in December with a final agreement that did not specifically support a global

phaseout of fossil fuels.


Although the CEO of a fossil fuel company led the most recent conference in the United

Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, which is hosting COP29, intends to have an oil executive lead

the next one, which is set for November. Over the next ten years, Azerbaijan also intends

to increase its gas production by a third.


The host of COP29 is not by herself. According to information released by Global

Witness last month, the oil and gas companies that committed to decarbonizing at the

conference last year intend to use up roughly 62 percent of the global carbon budget by

2050. This revelation prompted new calls for governments to stop giving in to polluters

and enact more aggressive climate policies.

Comments